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#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Sunday, June 19, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/vfmrj4/daily_discussion_sunday_june_19_2022/)
I think everyone was expecting a spike below 20k and then a quick rally back above $20k to 21-22k to rope some more in before potentially the next drop. What's happening is just... weird....
This sentiment is juicy. I’m actually worried about BTC never recovering for once, makes me a little nauseous. I’m throwing the last of my powder in now. Looking back in a few years this will be a day to remember, because of terrible mistakes or “lucky to get in early”
CBDCs are a fact.
You imagine a world where everyone has a digital wallet in their phone , every company accepts digital currencies and no bitcoin ?
Also metaverse which is just a gimmick rn but a reality soon
This reminded me of the dude who shorted 17-19k range and keep adding margin, ride his position to all time high, twice, and still have his short position up. I wonder what happen to him now.
There was a guy here who longed with a life changing amount of money at $430 and got liquidated about $330. Then he did it again and got liquidated about $200. Lost his apartment and was broke.
closed \~ 27k
He closed it in the high 20’s? Maybe low 30’s can’t remember
I've never seen Bitcoin goes down like this. No bounce, nothing, only relentless selling. I guess this is how large scale deleveraging looks like. All those distressed long positions that A3C, Celsius, ...got margin called but the exchanges (BitMEX, Deribit, ...) know they can't just market dump them because of the size of those positions is massive. So they have to "DCA" out of those positions over a period of a few days or weeks. I have no idea how long this situation is gonna last, but I think we will be due for a relief rally in Q4 of this year.
No relief until all these bad companies and scammers dump their coins. For there to be a trend reversal, there also needs to be new cash injected into the system. Don't see that happening for awhile. Retail won't come back either, they're gonna be struggling for basic necessities in the coming months.
> they're gonna be struggling for basic necessities in the coming months
I'm top 4% of household income retail and I'm fucking hurting this year (comparatively). Energy, taxes, insurance... just thousands and thousands of dollars more expense this year.
And this is how the crypto winter is born.
Past precedent doesn't really apply here because we've no data on how BTC behaves during a 2008 like collapse.
Bounced at the 0.382 FIB level from low of 17.6 and high of 19.5. But this bounce looks weak as fuck and if BTC drops below 18K, most likely, we are going to 16-17K quickly. For trading purposes, I would sell anything near 20K as most likely, 20K flipped resistance already.
If we drop below 18 we’re going to 17….this is the TA I come here for
Drop below 18K and we still can linger around between 17-18K. I am saying that it will most likely drop below 17K as I don't think the double bottom at 17.6K will help much.
Ladies and gentlemen, please raise your tray tables and return your seats to the upright position as we begin our descent into $16,500 shock and panic levels by Sunday night.
Target is Celsius’s liquidation. $13k
Yea I feel like this is a foregone conclusion
Thought it was $17,000
They continue to add more collateral
So target is not $13k then, but actually $0 - got it.
Dumb question but is there anyways to set a proper alarm on my iPhone when a price hits? The kind that wakes me up I mean.
Make a custom Focus setting to allow Coingecko alerts no matter what.
go into your sound settings and make it so each alert instead of a simple *ping* makes an actual ringtone…the more alarming the better.
That should alert you real nicely and wake you in a panic when the bottom falls out again tonight
I can’t seem to change the sound though..
What kind of phone do you have?
ah was hoping I could help you out but I am a samsung galaxy guy.
Pretty sure if you use the Coinbase app you can create an alert and then it'll send a push notification. You could customize the sound for that app to something obnoxious.
Dan Peña screaming bitcoin will go to f…. zero would add some drama to it, and surely wake you.
Best you can do is set a specific Focus to allow certain notifications/alerts, and then wake up to the notification sound from a crypto tracking app. Not sure if that's really loud enough though. I suppose you could write your own that just spams notifications obnoxiously lol.
Glad I'm Luna, hope you guys are holding up ok. 😂
I'm not a trader. I tried back when BTC was sub $10k but I quickly realized that I wasn't good at it and that the taxes removed a lot of my perceived profits. So I sold most of what I'd bought and sold with a nice profit, enough money for the taxes, and was left with 2 BTC accumulated from profits, so basically they didn't cost me anything as I'd recouped my investment and paid taxes. That was about five years ago. I put them in a ledger nano and didn't do anything else.
When BTC hit 60K, I thought about moving them to an exchange, but I was greedy, and I figured it would keep going up. I considered selling at 50k, 40k, 30k, and I still didn't. By the time I decided that I needed to liquidate them BTC was at 23k. I only had a 10k emergency fund. I am (was) 3 years from retirement and this year alone my retirement assets have lost $500k, which is about 40% of all the money I've saved over my entire life for retirement.
So at 21.5k I sold the two BTC I had. It gave me a peace of mind to have that security fund but it made me really sad because I've always hoped that BTC would be a real jewel in my retirement portfolio.
Most of y'all (I live in Louisiana) will probably laugh at this and think I was weak, sold too soon, didn't have faith ... But I'm sharing this to give y'all my perspective on what I sold where I did and why. I capitulated. Whether I was right or wrong only time will tell. I'm comfortable with my decision.
I do hope that all of y'all who are holding, will reap the rewards of your patience and make a shit ton of money!
Sounds like you screwed around with internet money and came up 26k on top.
Not a bad turnout my guy.
> I'm not a trader. I quickly realized that I wasn't good at it
Kudos, you're already ahead of the 1,000,000 other people who still need to figure that out. 😝
Buy back in under 10 again and sell at a better time or keep as that gem in your account as the rest of it rebuilds.
He is close to 60, life is finite unfortunately and not everyone can live to 94 like buffete and see the results of their investments
Traded like a tech stock, will perform like one. Most of the shit stocks are back to pre-Covid levels. BTC to pre-Covid? ~8-10k
Possibly, if erasing all the QE gains it will bring it sub 8
Feds fund rate seems to have more impact on BTC price than QE/QT:
QE been happening since ‘08 in the US and before in Japan.
I think he may have actually meant 8 buckarinos.
Times like this I'm always shocked that there are more sellers left.
Who holds this long and then finally decides to sell? The number of people sitting on a profit has to be at the lowest, so it's not that.
I do believe crypto will recover faster than the stock market. It takes much less to move the crypto market. Also, if the arguments for crypto are correct, this is when it's suppose to shine. Of course it fell with other markets, but an era of failing currencies was always suppose to set the stage for crypto to shine.
If you believed that in the past, you should still believe it.
For context, only ~15% of coins move during the 2018 bear market.
There’s always plenty more left to sell…
Is the “this is the time it’s supposed to shine” referring to the inflation we are seeing? Cause I keep seeing this sentiment.. and really, Bitcoin is supposed to shine with monetary inflation (which was a major catalyst for it being created), and it has shined with monetary inflation. Right now, the future of QE and monetary policy is more up in the air than it has been.. and things are tightening.. so Bitcoin is going down.
Look at the post above this one. But yeah, it's probably mostly leverage getting rekt.
This is all leveraged games. Whale takes short position, dumps on the market, price drops, longs and margin positions liqd, whale closes short and scoops up more cheap btc while taking long positions and keeps ok buying with the profits, price peaks, long closed, rinse, repeat.
A lot of it is forced selling by degens betting big they caught the "bottom".
Plebs can’t afford gas anymore. This isn’t going to recover anytime soon. We’re fucked unless the Ukraine issue gets resolved.
> Plebs can’t afford gas anymore.
Maybe they shouldn't buy 5,500-pound pickup trucks the size of tanks, that get 20mpg, and now probably cost $150 to fill up. I see tons of these things on the road, almost always hauling nothing, carrying one person, and I'm as baffled as you are why they were bought and how people can afford gas long-term.
Lol my f-550 bucket truck for work gets about 4mpg. Throw about a buck fifty in it every single day. But that shit prints money while its running so its all worth it.
Ukraine? Bike crashing Joe needs to let domestic oil companies drill, make pipelines, build refineries and nuclear power plants. ESG energy ain’t gonna get it done. 2000 comments is the bottoms for BTC. We are close but not there yet.
Domestic oil companies don't want to do any of those things because of the move away from fossil fuels (why would they invest now?). Plenty of oil company CEOs saying as much. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chevron-CEO-Says-No-New-Refineries-In-USEver.html
Unfortunately, most people are afraid of nuclear power plants (see the Three Mile Island documentary on Netflix to get a real feel for it), and due to all the regulation, high costs and long build times, they are a non-starter even if there are modern safe designs.
All of that stuff takes years to decades to come online. There’s thousands of leases owned by oil companies that aren’t being used. And none of that changes the fact that the huge spike in prices is driven by a huge shift in demand from a completely different continent. Not to mention the serious long term consequences of greenhouse gases. Trump could have built more nuclear plants and massively ramped up American electric car infrastructure to avoid this too.
Leave the politics in the other regarded subs.
Fossil fuels are a dead end. Embrace renewables wherever possible and nuclear to fill the gaps. Fossil fuels will always have their place, but if we dont get our climate in check we're all screwed. Carbon and volatiles recapture should be among our highest goals. We can do it, we can fix our planet, but we can't stick our heads in the sand about the state our earth is in.
Looks like the wedge pattern has been invalidated and we are now in a descending channel. Probably we range between 16 to 20K for the next few days.
Idk for some reason I feel that this is overdone. I’ve been so bearish but this afternoons action reeks of capitulation.
I mean it's literally one of the worst weeks in Bitcoin history so that's probably why it feels terrible lol.
It reeks of forced selling, which isn’t capitulation.
Agee , it has happened to soon , there are still too many people trying to play it like it’s going to reverse at hyper speed.
We need boring sideways / down
If your selling in this range, don’t worry. Just tell yourself and anyone who asks that you sold at or near the 2017 high, rather than a 2022 low.
This is not the bounce that you’re looking for.
Sold some at 19.3k after buying at 17.7k. I think we go down again.
Did Merlin post anything recently?
Would love to read his insight during such a remarkable period.
Hope he is well!
Either he’s taking time off until the next bull cycle, or he bailed because the trolls in here couldn’t resist dunking on him when he was kind enough to share his audit experience.
Merlin might be in a sub-basement-level dungeon at the IRS.
Actually, I see his Reddit account has been suspended. Something's going on... 😟
I thought his audit went okay and he paid up everything?
What happened with him and taxes?
This shit is fucking scary. I’m pretty one dimensional with trading and declare everything on my taxes because I’m scared shitless of the IRS, but now I’m getting anxiety even though I know I’ve been totally honest about everything lol.
Well the fundamental issue seemed to be he was misrepresenting his situation in a way that was hugely beneficial to him.
And capital you bought and now cannot account for is absolutely 100% considered “sold”.
Imagine if you bought a business and then no longer had the business but tried to claim you didn’t owe capital gains because you rock a alt just traded the business for something else but have no paperwork.
His 'calculations' ended with him declaring a refund in the upper 5-figure range.
For tax year 2017, i.e. transactions during 2016, a slow but steady bull market. Think about that, in a year where long-term holders like him who bought years prior probably couldn't have lost money, he declared the *IRS owed him* nearly $100,000.
Last I remember he posted a goodbye message here some considerable time ago saying he was fed up with people's behaviour on reddit (not this sub IIRC) and was leaving reddit altogether - unless anyone's heard from him since?
I wonder why he got suspended from Reddit, I know he didn't like the moderation in subs.
i bet he comes back under another account perhaps when everything calms down in this space a bit. Merlin560 wasnt his first account anyways
Quality shit posting and funny replies in this mega thread I gotta say.
I keep telling people we have peak altcoin hate again, "only hold Bitcoin and world ending narrative" what do you think the whales are going to buy, the last thing you would expect is alts to outperform.
maybe im turning illiterate but i cant parse what you're trying to convey here
(not sarcasm, i enjoy your takes)
Just saying from narratives and charts I think altcoins will outperform Bitcoin but people are shocked it's happening and think it's a bad thing for crypto overall but it's not, just what whales are transitioning to I think.
Half of these coins -- a single four-figure buy increases their marketcap by 10% 😛
USDT Dominance [resistance](https://www.tradingview.com/x/sNxoXW9L/) held and it dropped, [whales still loading up](https://charts.aggr.trade/2nvo) big, once USDT Dominance gets [back under support](https://www.tradingview.com/x/RcKjyZWF/) this thing will fly. Lot of alts held their lows from May from May 12th. Not sure you guys realize what kind of major low we're putting in.
Did anybody big go bust after dropping to 17.5k? If not, what was the point? And if no point in sight, maybe the deed is yet to be done, and this just a temporary move upwards to crush greedy shorts? I doubt the Wall St sharks alluded to by Celsius have run out of ammo or desire yet...
Make zim belieeve zis was le böttöm, zen rug pull 'im for 'is life zavings.
Yesterday… all my targets hit sub 20k. Now it seems as though we’re here to stay. Oh I believe in sub 10k.
Suddenly, I’m not half as much worth as I used to be. Margin calls are hanging over me. Oh 18k came suddenly.
Why.. she… had to long I don’t know she wouldn’t say.
I think you have a future in the parody music business.
I longed today in the morning (EU time) at entry 18824.81 with moderate leverage. I am in profit now but imagine my day
For your sake I hope you closed that and repositioned. I do think it'll be fine long term if you can hold the position.
u/Rusty5M now leads the "Guess the Low" contest with a guess of $17,100.00.
8 of the original 64 entrants are still in it.
Really smart people in this sub thought these guesses were crazy talk.
I didnt honestly think wed get below 20k but hey, every time is different. wild stuff
Got that thread handy?
When were these guesses made... January 1^st 2022?
Late Feb 2022.
You know you've been staring at the charts too much when you refresh your weather app and the temperature goes from 19° to 16° and you nearly crap your pants thinking BTC crashed some more.
Lol best comment of the day. I’d give you an award but I’m too poor now to afford one.
> the temperature goes from 19° to 16° and you nearly crap your pants
Well, no wonder, you're using Celsius... nyuk nyuk nyuk
Brooo the ingenuity of this pun
DCA all the way down. We'll probably see bottom by late Tuesday EST
*The moment, you own it, you better never let it go (Go!) You only get one shot, do not miss your chance to blow This opportunity comes once in a lifetime, yo*
hell ya, new Minions OST go hard. BA-NA-NA.
So like, I've been away from the screens for most of the day but is there any insight into why bitcoin and number 2 fell so hard compared to other coins. Was it bigger players being margin called or something?
I just expected other coins to dump harder as they usually do.
That’s where the leverage is. That’s the collateral that’s getting liquidated everywhere. Not a lot of loans backed by Shini Ibu out there.
I would think when there is a real crisis (which is what this is), the smaller players will go down second not first. It takes a while for the repercussions to ripple out and a lot of the smaller stuff is much less active/liquid and is more filled with true believers.
Pretty sure it is liquidity related. Also miner capitulation
Last chance to buy below ~~40k~~ ~~30k~~ 20k.
the drop being exactly 12% below $20K was the perfect setup to trigger stops
no matter how conservative you were that there'd be a wick below $20K you still got stopped out/got liquidated...if this was the bottom, in hindsight it would look like the most obvious bottom ever
What’s the significance of 12%?
most people like round numbers, so they just set their stop loss 10% below a big point like $20K hoping any penetration would be brief, down $2,000 tops...but after that, most people assume it'll just keep going lower, so they put stops right below that.
going down 12% and then bouncing means we triggered those stops and the forced selling is over.
Obviously it can still go down, but I don't think we'll see a similar level of a cascading drop unless we get down to $10K
This bounce back to 19k looks fake, spot exchanges were initially $20+ higher than perps but now they're equal/lower than perps, meaning this bounce is likely due to leveraged longs knife-catching rather than spot buyers.
12% seems like a completely random number tbh. The trend is your friend.
Idk man, I'd imagine it took a shit load of coins to get us down that far. I don't think it's gonna happen again, that was the beach ball held under the surface moment.
We need to hold above 19.4k. Now looks like we're painting a new downwards channel. The next 4hrs will be interesting but I'm not closing my short just yet.
...Ignoring literally everything else happening.
And it's gone
Annnnd it's back
50k coin volume on a weekend and retail is meant to be out. Does anyone, in heaven's name, have a clue what is on?
My guess are forced liquidations from MIM and USDD, both lost their peg these days.
I miss the days when there were no real stablecoins in the crypto market.
It's like people tried scamming on the Bitcoin protocol, found that it was largely bulletproof and un-counterfeitable, so they started their own coins to scam with.
"Stablecoins" have proven themselves again and again to be anything but.
Honestly we need to make sure people don't keep going for these stupid fucking algorithmic stablecoins that just result in them needing to liquidate billions of Bitcoin all at once. Absolute poison to the ecosystem. Tether was run by shady as hell people but even Tether was preferable to the complete idiocy that is most algo projects.
And who then is buying all those liquidated coins on the weekend?
Binance whale had 2k BTC buy wall at 18800, 2k on 18050 and 1k on 18000. So that's 5k coins for $75.5m (of course idk smaller buys and/or if really "1 whale".)
But yeah, lot of coins swapped hands here.
The same people who forced the liquidations.
Ppl buying liquidations at a discount, and then proceeding to dump those coins at any relief rally / shorts covering for profit. Rinse and repeat till it doesn’t work.
Best description of this market since november XD
I'm sure there are enough OGs around. Not all of them have a shitty risk management. Could also see Binance and the Winkelvoss getting interested at these levels but I have no idea.
Also, there's only so much buying going on, 10% down on the day
>Also, there's only so much buying going on
Every single coin that was sold was also bought.
Obviously, what I wanted to say is that the sell pressure is still way higher than demand
An emotional rollercoaster!
I've experienced the entire range, from disappointment to sadness to joy. Well no just the first two. And also some disgust and self loathing and anger. Pretty much the whole gamut of negative emotions
You're not alone mate. We'll get through this.
Hang in there
on gdax earlier today there was a 3,000 BTC dump to push us through 20k. Meanwhile, there's only 600 BTC between here and $20,600
Very observant. Dumps are fake. Pumps are real.
I would bet a lot of money that stonks tank hard next week. Oh... wait... I already did. This will be the week I take some (fairly substantial now) gains on my stonk short and plow them into Bitcoin.
you're about to level up to diydude3
"DIYDUDE is evolving!"
lower. sell all bounces.
Bears in disbelief
Even they can't believe how well they are doing.
I AM SATOSHI NAKAMATO
Goddam how am I gettin FOMO already lol, fuckin' bitcoin eh?
Can you guys stop buying, my wire is due on Monday. Thanks.
Isn't Monday a bank holiday?
Oh don't worry, it will be lower then.
think it s dead cat bounce, we will visit below 15k
That would be nice
This is not a bounce. We've been so conditioned by "down only" that even one green tick looks like a "bounce". We're way below yesterday's price. This isn't even close to a "bounce".
25k would be a DCB. But that's not happening. Down only. In case you hadn't noticed.
I bet a lot of juicy shorts opened when we busted 20k
Mine did when I crapped in them
Bought more it’s gonna dip more
a little math for you guys
$69,000 was 22x from our bottom at $3156 from last cycle
if $17,622 is the bottom for this bear...and we match the performance of last cycle bouncing here...that puts us at $387,684 for the top of the bull market
however, considering our weekly RSI is currently worse than it was during Mt Gox dump, during the last bear cycle and during the covid dump AND considering how relentless non-stop this dump was, its very possible that we'll show a better performance to the upside than last cycle as well...after all...increased volatility to the downside...tends to be matched by a similar increased volatility to the upside.
it took a lot of coins to grind us this far down, buying back those coins won't be found at 20% or 30% from here...to buy back the same number of coins, the price would get above ATH before they filled their bags even half way through
in other words, it might be a shit show now, but even a million dollar BTC is still on the table with our current setup.
Oh yeah, there's the hit of pure uncut hopium I'd been missing.
Last cycle top 69k
Next cycle top 420k
Hell, why not $1B, or $10B. It only gets its value from whether people think it's cool or not after all. There's literally nothing else determining its value.
just hook it into my veins
I was expecting (hoping for) 120k to 150k this cycle, then next cycle around 400k to 500k. So that's somewhat in line with what you're saying. I was thinking that maybe since the last cycle was so disappointing (China destroying momentum last year), maybe the next cycle might exceed expectations. Especially if we resume QE around the halving.
But I'm also fine with 100k to 200k next cycle... I'll just keep holding through this decade most likely.
If that makes you feel better, feel away.
Man.. the market cap required for a million dollar btc would be....crazy... Bitcoin is going to be worth the entire stock exchange combined. Buying the dip!
There is zero chance of that happening because each bull market has been significantly weaker than the last. We will probably struggle to hit $90,000 next cycle.
It's less of a multiple for sure but $90K would be pretty pessimistic unless the macro is still in the toilet come 2025.
Are you on a psyops campaign since coming out of the woodwork
Working with the fed to pump the last coins out of us poor maxis before unleashing a CBDC onto us — the scooby doo reveal is wardser as jpow
People have been calling for the end of BTC since its inception. I remember when it was $500, and people said then that it was going to zero. Now that governments, corporations, casinos, and endless other projects have adopted crypto, that’s when it’s really going to zero? Yeah right. The sole threat is if governments conspired to ban it globally and shutdown exchanges.
We’re just witnessing the temporary unwinding of over-leveraged market participants as interest rates go up. Luckily, the crash is happening quickly as people are forced to liquidate to maintain their LTV ratios. Not saying it won’t go down more, but it’s not going to zero. The online crypto casino market could probably sustain a crypto price floor in the double digit billions alone.
Maybe not going to zero but there's really no limit to how low. It won't stay there but we could liquidate every single long in existence that is open right now. It almost happened 2 years ago. The only thing that stopped it was bitmex pulling the plug.
I disagree. Some number of speculators and gamblers will always be buying and that instantiates a price floor. Just one crypto casino operator, Evolution Gaming alone pulls in $1.3B a year in revenue from crypto gambling, and they are one of many. These gamblers must continually pump dollars, and other currencies, into crypto in order to continue gambling.
Not to mention demand for use in crime, bribes, cheap money transfers (avoiding banking), and all the other activities that crypto is used for.
saying bitcoin could go to a penny doesn't add anything to your credibility. even if it was a wick.
I was thinking losing 99.9%, not 99.99999%
We just witnessed the bottom.
I don't believe you
This is the omega lol of the day. Thank you.