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Outstanding piece of intelligence - dirty TLDR: ukraine has the edge in the to 95% encircled city of Severodonetsk, by keeping there ~1.000 special forces that arise from the bunkers at night to kill russians with their superior night vision equipment. A very impressive heat map shows that ~ 60% of invaders forces in ukraine are piled up within 100-150 km range of severodonetsk, so in only around 10% of the captured area. The author claims that this creates opportunities to reach the true immediate goals of ukraine, pushing the russians to the pre attack borders by conquering back thinly defended places like Kherson, Melitopol or Mariupol. The map does seem to back up that that strategy could work well, and the UA is already gaining there. The author highlights that eventually the UA can retreat their Severodonetsk special forces by having them paddle across the river separating Severodonetsk from its better defensible twin town on the hill. The future vector is projected by highlighting that the time works against Russia, with its militias on the brink of annihilation (50-60% lost) and its in-field tanks, IFVs etc population rapidly becoming a museum parade. The author contrasts this with the increasingly modern vehicles and systems entering on the ukrainian side, and the fact that Ukraine in about two to three months will add an additional 100-200% of fresh troops to its existing army, that are currently completing training, collecting equipment and moving in place. The future vector therefore predicts that if things continue roughly as we have seen until now, the global alliance will help ukraine kick russias ass until it looks like roadkill in Q4 this year


That may be the longest TL;DR I've ever read :-)


Hehe I don't have time to cut it short. Very nice article you brought there


Been saying this same thing for weeks. Ukrainian leadership is not dumb or making emotional decisions, if they decided to hold Sdonetsk, there was a good reason. You don't risk a lot of forces there and Lysychans'k if you think the Russians have a reasonable chance to cut off that pocket. UA knows they're baiting/grinding down the Russiansnand that the Russians do not have the forces or command sophistication to exploit even a minor breakthrough.


Great article. It’s enlightening. Thanks


Excellent read, those vampire tactics are working very well