By - ethfinance
**Tricky's Daily Doots #58**
Yesterday's Daily 15/06/2022
[Previous daily doots](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/vcmneb/daily_general_discussion_june_15_2022/icfwtcq/)
- "[Just when you thought that the merge couldn't be any more slept on](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/vcmneb/daily_general_discussion_june_15_2022/icfprd9/)..." ~ u/Tricky_Troll
- u/SinnU2s compares [the future of Ethereum vs the future of Bitcoin.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/vcmneb/daily_general_discussion_june_15_2022/ici7vlx/)
- u/ec265 realises the real meaning behind ["Triple halvening".](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/vcmneb/daily_general_discussion_june_15_2022/icfjqeo/) 😐
- u/superphiz thinks that [now is your chance.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/vcmneb/daily_general_discussion_june_15_2022/icja2y7/)
- u/SeaMonkey82 shares an often overlooked and [very valuable investing strategy](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/vcmneb/daily_general_discussion_june_15_2022/icgm6cp/) they use.
- u/quadraticsharting's [bear market memory.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/vcmneb/daily_general_discussion_june_15_2022/icgch2z/)
- u/KBrot shares [what's going on in TradFi.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/vcmneb/daily_general_discussion_june_15_2022/icfecih/)
- u/NeedlerOP has a [bullish copium thesis.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/vcmneb/daily_general_discussion_june_15_2022/ichtb5m/)
- u/ZeroTricks's today in [Ethereum history.](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/vcmneb/daily_general_discussion_june_15_2022/icftefe/)
- u/Hawaii_Facts's [penultimate fact!](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethfinance/comments/vcmneb/daily_general_discussion_june_15_2022/ich2ysc/)
^(Geth updated. If you haven't done it yet, you have 2 weeks left!)
The best financial decision I ever made was to switch my charts to daily. It has allowed me so much more mental fortitude in this hyper-volatile market.
I just switched my chart to 10y candles. All i see is green for bitcoin.
Waiting for my next contract, waiting for fiat to buy...
In this bear I can finally see the path that will lead me to FIRE. Last year I truly thought the ship had sailed, so I tried to use leverage to catch up to it (you can imagine how it ended), but I truly saw no other way to get to any significant amount.
Now, it's here, the path is clear. This is the moment to buy, and I will make use of this opportunity, and share it with everyone around me who's willing to listen.
Does.. does this plan involve... leverage?
Only leveraging old contacts to get more fiat!
This is the gwei
Just remember if you invested $100 in the Nikkei in March 1991, today, you'd have.... $100.
Not every market is Up Only All The Time™️
I’m pretty sure this doesn’t take dividends into account
VT and chill
Oh wait, wrong sub lol
VT is a global stock market index composed of 60% US equities and 40% international.
VT and chill is something of a meme because you can literally buy that one ETF and nothing else while still getting a diversified equity portfolio.
Buy VT and forget about it. It's always up and to the right over the long run.
The most insane thing about Japanese economy is that... it kinda peaked in 1995.
Its gdp was $5.5 trillion in 1995. Its gdp today is a whopping $5 trillion.
It basically didn't grow any for 27 fucking years.
It's a land frozen in time, almost. And it speaks volume that it's still in the top economy of the world despite being asleep for the entirety of the mid 90s and early 2000s.
There’s some great docs on YouTube about the Japanese economic melt down, super interesting stuff
Japan's population topped, they are getting older with a median age of whopping 49 years, meaning well over half the population are elder citizens. They also lack oil & gas, no cheap energy, had their own real estate bubbles and while overall Japan is a very modern, safe and advanced nation, they already reached their peak of population, natural resources, energy and economy 30 years before the western world. Europe and USA are following the steps albeith in different ways.
Mind kinda blown.
Even though some of the best engineering & products in the world are all Japanese.
If you invested $100 in Gold in August 2011, more than a decade later, today you would have a whopping... $100
The rETH Maker governance vote has ended.
rETH has been accepted as the newest collateral type in the Maker Protocol.
This is excellent, excellent news that I feel will help accelerate the adoption of rETH and just might pull some people that are on the fence away from stETH.
Not sure exactly when it will be implemented, but for those who plan on utilizing rETH CDPs, remember that rETH cannot be fully exchanged for ETH from the smart contract until another hardfork after the merge enables withdrawals. This makes it unable to be arbitraged effectively, and can lead to the price of rETH relative to ETH dropping which could lead to liquidation of your CDP. In this FUD environment and if there is any delay in the merge expect fear contagion and people dumping rETH to ETH on exchanges and prepare for such a bank run so that you do not get liquidated. One of the bets that 3AC got burned on is using stETH as collateral to lever up. As stETH price fell they had no way to exchange it for ETH as exchange liquidity dried up and the ETH could not be withdrawn from the beacon chain for redemptions, so their loans got margin called. Leverage can be a financial weapon of mass destruction as we are all witnessing, so proceed with knowledge and caution if you plan to utilize it.
Thank you for this comment. I was actually about this. So many people are super excited that this vote has passed, yet I kinda don't understand how this does not resemble the whole stETH situation.. People will certainly use it for leverage..
What are the odds that the `0x0000...` address becomes even more loaded post-merge from validators who forgot to see a fee recipient value?
12k ETH on ropsten already lol
Well I would be happy if that were to happen to be honest, 100% burn 🔥.
But i hope it wouldn't, it is someone's income after all
my friends never ask me about my crypto invesment anymore since their stocks are also down bad.
hey... that's a good thing when the market correlation is high.
Next time a no coiner calls crypto a scam and we are scammers participanting in a scam, ask them if you were to give them 10 eth now, would they take it?
They'd say yes.
Ask them why.
They'd say to sell immediately.
Now ask them why are they willing to sell to the next guy an illegal asset and does that make them scammers as well? Or at least that wouldn't give them any high moral ground over your ordinary crypto investor.
Damn man, what kinda friends you rolling with? Talking about legal issues and moral ramifications of each lol
You can come to my friends circle. We like beer, fishing, billiards, video games, and watching our kids be stupid as they grow up(with all the love in the world of course!)
You described my ideal life, and now I have friend FOMO.
I'm too scared to bring kids into the world because we have no community & our friends (rather, peers) place higher value on displays of social status.
Also none of my friends enjoy shootin' billiards as much as I do, which is worse
Go join a local amateur league! Thats where I met one of my best friends and my wife 🙂
Honestly, as an outsider who doesn't know jack shit about your life... It sounds amazing & I'm super jealous yet happy for you :)
Oh no they're not my friends. I'm talking about rando redditors mostly from buttcoin personalfinance gaming and investing subs.
But yes I do like fishing billiards and video games so I'd love to hang out one day in Hodlercon $100k ETH conference in Monaco kek.
Shit tons of money on the side-lines, bitfinex longs and stablecoin dominance both at ATH.
Same behaviour to May 2021 dump, and many subsequent lower lows and shakouts, seems to me that market is expecting a rebound.
In contrast to March 2020, where we saw the same increase in stable dominance during a flight to safety - but longs were aggressively closed as price decreased instead of loading up.
Maybe there is something I'm missing here.. and longs are being opened to hedge derivative shorts or something, but it seems to be a serious loading up of risk for a short term move, when longs start selling off very aggressively during a bear market bounce I'll start to get a lot more bearish.
I think the difference between this dump vs. The 2018 dump is that a fuck ton of money remains in crypto in the form of stables. Whereas the 2018 dump just bled money into the meat space world.
For sure, can argue that stablecoin adoption is way up and skews the %age upward over time - but I really can't ignore the longs data.
They grew 2x on the May dump, and another +40% on top of that during the last couple of weeks.
Peaks in longs have been a strong local bottom indicator, in bulls and bears
Is the daily not on the home page I’m confused
Best case scenario: This is the bottom. We go sideways until the merge.
Worst case scenario: We do a 95% goblin town drop to $278, sideways at $300 until the merge.
Super worst case scenario: Economy implodes. He who has the most Ramen sauce packets becomes the richest human on earth.
Realistic case scenario: We continue a slow bleed, consolidation & then crab market with mini pumps that get sold down immediately - for a few years (3-5 years).
People discount this possibility, since it's so painful. Everyone wants a sharp dump & Up Only to resume.
Almost no one is prepared for a stagnant / down market for the better part of a decade.
Man.. I just don’t see it, with a triple half already plated and Sharding getting whipped up in the kitchen.
I super super hope you're right
Me too 😬
The Merge sees a mini rally of +20% only to get sold down hard, back to the baseline in a few weeks.
You forgot the scenario where Putin just decides to end it all for everyone.
Calls on cockroach traps
Get Putin on ze line. Crash everything. We will start all over again with a new evolution.
In that case, go long on bottle caps.
Apocalyptic scenario wasn’t included. I will get it in the next one.
4 and a half years ago when we were in this range after an ATH of $1400, this place (well the other place) was full of crypto bros saying the price was going to shoot right back up and keep flying to a new ATH because Christmas bonuses, Chinese new year, and weeks not months.
This time there seems to be more collective agreement that we're going down from here and it will take years to recover.
I have no idea if any of this difference in sentiment indicates anything for the market, or if it's just some maturity in the space, or we got beat so hard last cycle we just can't be as naively bullish anymore. But it's just something I observed.
Coming towards the end of a 10-15 year short term credit cycle and potentially a 40-50 year longer term credit cycle (non-stop generational equity bull run anyone?)
Typically we see a shit-ton of volatility at the end of the road, juiced up on years of easy money - wouldn't be surprised if we see inflation peak in a couple of months and 2-3 x from here in a bear market rally / sideways chop like the first 1970s inflation peak
Wouldn't be surprised if the recession that everyone is calling for plays out ala 2008 and we see another -75% bleed over the next year, feel like there is a fair bit of recency bias in what a recession entails though
I think the issue for me is, in this current global economy, I don’t see many inroads for cash to flow into crypto.
Well, there's everyone that sold on the way up, the top and the way down.
In crypto, bears are just long term bulls who want to increase the size of their stack the most at the lowest re-buy in price possible
We also said that at the beginning of covid.
And then the US government went full Oprah and sent everybody money.
Any chance that's going to happen again? (I honestly don't know. Looks like US is going to officially be in a recession soon. I don't know what tools the government may use to postpone it again.)
Looks like $1,200 is gone and we’ll bounce between $1,000 and $1,100 before dropping more if the pattern continues.
All depends on what stocks do
fundamentals have never been stronger. positive legislation coming from the last superpower (for now?) and the biggest event in crypto this side of eth’s genesis (merge)
just gotta hang in there.
edit: wanted to make this a stand-alone comment but ended up as a reply to you @mikron2. i’m ready for another drop. even though i’m ready it doesn’t make it hurt any less lol
[How about that world out there these days am I rite?](https://c.tenor.com/j0X7uo9X06IAAAAd/over-it.gif)
Turns out there was no Doom then Boom. Just more doom.
it’s always doomest before the boom
Wait till you see how doomy it is before the doomest
Bears look weak, 3-digit ETH is just a meme. We have the high ground now.
You have no idea how much I needed to hear that from you rn.
Someone’s gotta take a stand, everyone expecting $500-600 as a forgone conclusion. I didn’t hear no stinkin’ bell!
Three digit ETH will happen but dont get too scared if you see $400-600 ETH. It will all pass with enough time and there will be better days. Oh and if you have cash to buy this is when the real wealth is made.
*This is not financial advice.*
a bottom of $500 would actually be incredibly bullish imo
5x the previous cycle low
Are we really this early? There are only 1.5 million addresses that hold 1 ETH or more? I know most of you degens have multiple wallets so it seems feasible that there would be less than 1 MM individuals that hold at least 1 ETH. Just feels shocking to me. Am I missing something?
Most people buy and hold in exchange wallets. I have heard estimates of about 100 million people who own crypto this year.
This makes more sense to me, does not account for casual users who only accumulate on an exchange. So really we need to find out how many individual accounts on exchanges that hold at least 1 ETH.
Only 1 million. Wait till there are 100 million people all want to own at least 1 ETH.
This the future I'm looking forward to
Could r/ethfinance be the bitcointalk equivalent for Ethereum?
Lol, "the key here is for every individual to, at minimum, get 2 more people to hold 1 whole ETH..."
I got 3 to hold 10+ Eth and with hold I mean they will never sell lol.
Who’s the whale buying up all the 20k dips
Grrrrabbin' a drink then let's stream it up in five.
edit: thank you everyone who stopped by!
edit 2: i forgot to return to it live, but Bank of Japan maintained its (extreme) quantitative easing by keeping the benchmark rate at -0.1%. they were damned if you, damned if you don't so take that policy action as you will.
Let's git it.
Dropping down to remember what 3 digits was like has been fun and all, but... I'm gonna need this to go back to $4k soon.
Would be much more fun if I had fiat to deploy at these prices beyond my normal weekly buys. I’m ready for $4k too but I think it’s going to be a few years.
Edit* funny timing, my weekly buy on coinbase went through right after I posted this.
If the macro microenvironment shows a positive potential, and in 2024 things actually improve, I think ETH will start rocketing up with the added benefit of the Merge. Hoping to see $4k in 2024 and going to levels we should be at - $30k :)
When the charts resemble a bitten off celery stick, you have to recognize that the bottom is near.
Low grade trolling, D+
[Duckbitch, famous Bitcoin maxi dickrider, drops some disingenuous FUD on ETHtrader. Is it blind arrogance? Is it mental illness? Is it both?](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/ve16dd/flippening_tether_is_going_to_flip_ethereum_this/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)
That dude is reaching so hard. He/she/it compares eth to Luna and vitalik to the Celsius ceo? What a nutcase
He’s a Bitcoin maxi. It’s typical.
I love when he says the Merge has been a disaster and “may not even happen”.
Right? The merge chugging towards the finish line has been and will be disastrous to the mallard’s agenda I’m sure.
Also, most of the modern world is cruising towards green solutions. How is bitcoin going to adapt to that? They don’t ever have an articulate answer to that. Just some murky explanations at best.
Their best answer is a flat denial of BTCs energy usage. They’ll tell you that it consumes less energy than refrigerators, AC units, and other basic stuff.
Despite the fact that their footprint could still be reduced by 99%, they prefer to use whataboutisms and other smoke & mirrors to deflect from the topic - because they HAVE no viable solution.
Nice, I haven’t checked yet if my blatant, admittedly low-class “as bad as they are” name-calling achieved that same result, but i suspect it likely did.
As satisfying as it is to refute garbage like that, you know he’s barely going to read it anyway. I’ve basically stopped engaging at this point. We’re never changing hardcore bitcoin maxi opinions - not guys like that. I don’t even try anymore.
What do we say to $1000 breaking down?
“Come back tomorrow.”
We say, “hurry up and get on with it”.
Seriously, triple digits is inevitable at this point, and I’d like to begin true aggressive re-accumulation.
Yeah this is how I feel... Maybe Max pain would be the crab
When the chips are down like right now, I try to imagine what it would be like if I just discovered Ethereum today. I’d look at $1000 ETH and the ATH of $4800. Then I’d read up on the technology, use cases, tech roadmap. Then I’d get incredibly excited realizing that I just found a bleeding edge tech play that’s about 1/5 of its ATH with an incredibly bright future ahead.
But 99% will see -70% drop and say its dead
Possible bail out for 3ac
Edit:second link which hsaka trade re-tweeted and deleted. I have no idea if the wallet is 3ac..
Added an update above
Both tweets deleted, can you explain?
Anyone leaving L.A. at 8am tomorrow for Holdercon?
I think I'll be in Dallas then
There are a ton of psychological traps in crypto. You should try to start thinking about how you would emotionally handle being down 10x more in terms of USD than you are right now.
You may feel 10x better when this is over and maybe you are “permanently” in profit, but at the end of the day we need to measure from bottom to bottom. Markets have a way of humbling people.
You might stay above your average cost next bear market, but oops you didn’t take any profit and missed a potentially life changing opportunity. You don’t actually gmi, you just graduate to rekt level 2.
Why should I care my profit will be a bit less for 2 years when I have full conviction that within 10 years it'll reclaim previous ATH plus ROI that exceeds your usualy 10%, hence the reason I decided not to sell into tradfi?
Yeah, I'm with you, but most people don't keep anywhere close to the cash runway to make this kind of move nbd.
TLDR remember how you feel right now and know you can feel like this again so that you will actually consider realizing non-zero profit next time instead of feeling wealthy and aping into whatever is popular next bull
I said basically this, in a comment on a crypto post in the fatFIRE sub, and someone from this sub found my comment, linked to it in the Daily, and basically publicly shamed me as some kind of traitor.
Fucking ridiculous. You don’t retire with massive holdings in crypto. You just don’t do it. If you don’t SELL, you have NOTHING, and anything else is just delusional thinking, cope, and hopium.
Interestingly, I am somewhere between you and savage about this.
edit: deleted the rest for privacy, but I understand where you're coming from sers
Always maintain a “never sell” stack in retirement … but to me, that stack is maybe 20% …? 10%…?
We can’t take “it” with us. How much is enough? This is a massively risky speculation play. I’ve never been a big believer in the “revolution” narrative, and I act accordingly.
I hope we all “make it”, I really do. But to me, I think leaving money on the table, cycle after cycle, is very foolish.
> You might stay above your average cost next bear market, but oops you didn’t take any profit and missed a potentially life changing opportunity. You don’t actually gmi, you just graduate to rekt level 2.
This is me right now. If I had sold closer to the top, I’d be in a way better financial position outside of crypto and if I was buying back in right now I’d have a bigger stack than I would have sold.
I knew this was coming, but stupidly made the decision not to sell before the merge and was hoping it wouldn’t get this bad before that happened. Not making that mistake again.
"Do you feel in charge?" Says Bane. As his hand gently rests on Su Zhu's shoulder.
This can't be said often enough because I don't think the message has gotten through yet. There are evil people in this world and they're already working on making our worst dystopian nightmares reality. Not just in known dictatorships, they exist around the world. There's no one but us to stop them, folks outside of cryptosphere don't even understand what's being developed.
The only way to stop a bad guy with a chain is a good guy with a chain!
What happened to that 220k eth on uniswap (I think?) that was about to get liquidated?
Eth on Uniswap can't get liquidated (but may be subject to impermenent loss)
I think you're referring to [this Aave position](https://zapper.fi/account/0x4093fbe60ab50ab79a5bd32fa2adec255372f80e/protocols/ethereum/aave-v2). It's still open and in a very precarious spot. They've protected it a little but it would start getting liquidated under 1000.
It was on aave. And it’s still there, liquidation level of $986
BTC only ~$1,000 off its previous ath.
I'm prepared for a sweaty bear summer.
Probability that we go below $1k?
Probability is .999. 95% down from ATH would put us at ~240. If we get below 300 I think that might be close to the bottom.
lol it already went below that on uniswap. think it was like $975 twice (whale unloading was the cause)
I would say 75%
If the scaling roadmap succeeds I think it is clear after the last month that we are much closer on genuinely valuable on-chain payment systems over more complicated financial products.
Envisioning a future where Visa and Mastercard launch permissioned ZK L3 validiums to settle USDC transactions on Ethereum is clear to me. What is hard though is seeing the corresponding financial institutions that service the credit cards moving their infrastructure on chain.
For Visa and friends, it is a matter of throughput improving such that both they and their storefronts save by ditching centralized servers in favor of decentralized points of sale. At this point, their business models would really be extracting a flat rent from storefronts plus a premium above the fees necessary for incorporating transactions into proofs. All USDC transactions would route up through Circle and back into the real financial system to settle with financial institutions managing the credit accounts. The tunable fee/latency balance of ZK rollups would be a large benefit for both parties as well during times like holiday season to more flexibly and efficiently charge customers.
As an aside, this is may be the one area where Jack could actually have a leg up with Block/Bitcoin as far as the Web 5 meme. I find this doubtful, but worth thinking about.
The unclear question is what benefit would a financial institution managing credit card debt glean from moving their own infrastructure to a decentralized blockchain? It doesn’t seem like there are great arguments for this at the moment that are solely unrealizable today because of the technical challenges with scaling.
I wonder how ol super bull Cathie Wood is feeling right about now….
She’s a religious nut, and mentally ill. She probably feels fine. She’s got the big J to carry her through these Trials and Tribulations - that’s why there’s only one set of footprints, bruh.
Hey now, nothing wrong with finding something positive to believe in
Why do y'all feel the need to shit on people about their faith? It tells us more about you than them. This sub is not the gutter.... I expect more excellent behavior from y'all.
I said she was “a religious nut”. That’s pretty tame. My remark about her being “mentally ill” was an addendum, not further commentary regarding her faith.
If I wanted to take a dump on her for her faith, believe me, I could and would have, and it would have been extremely visceral and very offensive to basically anyone who read it. I didn’t, and wouldn’t, do that here. Because I respect this place.
My comment was emphasizing what I perceive to be her zealotry - that she’s ‘dialed up to 10’ on religion - not an explicit takedown of her being a believer.
And the footprints thing? A little harmless riff on the overly saccharine, famous “Footprints” poem.
Trust me, if I wanted to be an edgelord, and express the true depth of my distaste for this subject - a byproduct of childhood trauma, and yes, I realize that’s MY issue - I would’ve done so, and there would have been no prisoners taken.
She probably feels great, honestly. She is extremely devout and believes that she has been graced by God to bring her customers wealth. This is all just a test on the journey to salvation.
I’m not mocking her at all, to be clear. Just saying that she is open about her religion and a lot of people managing billions upon billions of dollars tend to have some system of belief that allows them to confidently stick to a plan (whether it’s correct or not) through huge volatility.
Praying really hard to Jesus Christ.
[Are fund managers a sort of merchant btw?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cleansing_of_the_Temple)
About the same as us.
Trying to think of a way to help people in the US with Celsius. If you potentially lost your holdings with a Celsius Earn account, this is their interest-earning account, which they say is a loan to Celsius in their own T&C's. Couldn't you claim this as a short-term capital loss tax deduction? This means you could potentially write off any capital gains you made this year or in the following years if Celsius doesn't pay back the loan. The IRS has guidelines that say if you can demonstrate that a loan/debt is uncollectable that they are treated as short-term capital losses.
I'm not a CPA or a financial advisor, but just thinking if there might be some option here for those that might need other options.
No one's lost anything yet. But if Celsius were to announce that they will not be paying back their customers, then and only then, could you claim that as a loss on your taxes. You would just treat it as selling your coins for $0.
Right, but from my understanding, the IRS doesn't give tax deductions if you lose your crypto. However, they do if you have a loan that isn't repaid.
Yes, it would be tax deductible in this case. But it may take a few years. You can't deduct anything just because withdrawals might be temporarily suspended.
I don't believe it would since under the current tax law, (again in the US only) this situation is a personal casualty loss, which is no longer tax-deductible. However, would love to know why you think it is tax-deductible in this case.
When you give your crypto to Celsius, or any custodian, they are investing on your behalf. If they over leveraged and got liquidated, that's no different than you getting liquidated, since it's your crypto. You can deduct that as an investment loss.
The _cost basis_ is a loss (needs to be balanced against gains, which you may not have). You don't get to claim a loss of unrealized gains - those don't actually exist in any place other than your head.
Liquidated the rest of my ENS airdrop for tax harvesting and added to my aSNX vault. EVM holders don’t forget about the financial stewardship vote.
To elaborate -
If you own an EVM, please vote on our latest Snapshot, where we propose to elect five Financial Stewards whose job it is to decide how to manage our treasury and submit plans to the DAO to vote on, and then the usual multisig will execute.
I was promised a lambo ☹️
I'm sure you can still afford to rent one for an afternoon
For those of you that use CDPs, what do you do with borrowed coins?
CDPs like maker or Liquity have extremely low (or zero) interest rates, so it's possible to borrow and then re-lend somewhere like Aave for marginal profit. You can also use them to LP somewhere, or to leverage up, or you can use them for regular life expenses.
What do people following this strategy do for for sudden market crashes like this one? Do they keep some dry-powder on the side just in case or go YOLO?
I guess it depends, sometimes you can unwind your positions and repay the loan.
in seriousness, usually just buy more ETH with low leverage. I have used DAI to pay a contractor before too though
What's the most trusted platform to do this? Maker?
Maker, Aave, and Compound are all solid options.
Pay down my other CDP.
*This is not a pseudonymous 3AC account*
Lol hilarious thread from 1 year ago.
the news was from Dec 2020, my man.
the delta variant just emerged. people were dying left and right from Covid.
do you really want them to raise the rate back then ??
I said it's a hilarious thread from 1 year ago to reflect.
I didnt say it's new "news".
yes and i found it's not hilarious.
Up only. The finance discussions on reddit are only slightly better than 4chan and most redditors are too young to have consciously experienced a proper economic crisis.
Good for gauging the Robinhood trader sentiment though.
The sentiments are about the same as Michael Saylor and Jim Cramer's quality, both of whom are 60 or more years old though.
Maybe. I doubt Cramer is as stupid as the role he plays. Wasn't he a relatively successful trader and hedge fund manager in the past? Strikes me as similar to Kevin O'Leary, both of them moved from investing into media/entertainment, but they basically still do the same hustle. We can only imagine the sort of shenanigans that go on behind the scenes at CNBC, which is basically a corporate propaganda outlet.
Anyway it's still useful to see what retail traders think. The recent WSB Game Stop rebellion was the best example for the markets not being bound by what they're told to do by the whales. Short term trading is all about sentiment and belief, understanding the narrative that influences and decides people's trades is even more useful than fundamentals imo.
That was never going to be the bottom. Global markets are heading for a dark time. You might even see $500 ETH.
Josh! My man. Seriously, stop playing with my emotions! $500/ETH? What a dream!
Those of us who had validators at 32eth have lost approximately $120k per node from the ATH. Some had multiple validators.
I hear ya. Some of us lost even more than that. Not really a loss if you never had it though.
Paper gains, paper losses
I'm never selling anything except staking rewards.
By the way, you might have the best Username I've ever seen
That's what I'm saying baby!
[Teku v22.6.0 released today](https://github.com/ConsenSys/teku/releases/tag/22.6.0)
> This is a recommended upgrade with configuration updates and optimisations
Retraced the entire JPow pump in one day, that’s a record
The timing of the goblintown.wtf NFT collection, along with its tagline ‘don’t be fucking greedy, that’s how we got here’ is so impeccable that I think it’ll end up being a significant historical event in crypto
How realistic is it for mortgages and auto loans to take place on a blockchain?
The only way I see it working is if there’s some sort of digital ID credit system.
I’m so sick of dealing with banks on my current auto loan situation.
With account abstraction, it would be possible to create loan products that settle on chain for security but have all of the permissioned aspects they have today through centralized custodians.
Whether it is valuable to put collateralized loans on chain is another question, but they could be the foundation of a much better credit rating system (see Vitalik’s last Bankless podcast). This has a dystopian taste to it though unless identities are purely opt in and are flexibly encrypted (you can prove to one person that you pay your rent and auto note on time, and you can prove to another person that you identify as Hispanic and are a first generation college student, but neither counterparty is aware of your entire identity).
What would you do if collateral value fell below loan balance? So if you lock up 100ETH at 4800 and borrow 300k, and then ETH drops to 1050? Just liquidate?
Can you explain the problem first?
I'm not sure about your specific situation and we're probably in different countries but in general I don't see much of a point of putting loans on the chain unless the asset is already cryptocurrency. We'll probably see more schemes where you can borrow against your crypto assets but the car companies are going to deal with banks and in the currency of their account, they have no idea about any of that crypto stuff.
The problem, for me at least, has been waiting for the purchaser of my car to get his funds to me. His bank is being a complete piece of shit and it’s been a two week process for me to get a payoff check for my car. Also tired of having dealing with this all on a M-F 9-5 schedule.
Oh, I thought you were the one getting the loan.
Yeah, long term there might be big improvements **if** the entire process of assessing creditworthiness were moved on chain and executed automatically. Might take a long time for this to happen though because all the crypto infrastructure would have to be there and run so reliably that big banks and insurance companies can 100% trust it. And it would also mean some sort of credit system that people would have to sign up for - many have understandable reservations regarding that sort of thing. But yeah, it's not unlikely we'll see something of the sort or at least more automation. All these pointless office jobs where people simply check and approve things are ripe for disruption in my view. Waste of human capital and so terribly inefficient. Those are basically the 19th century factory worker jobs of our time.
I’m wrong a lot, especially since that lightning strike, but couldn’t you use one of the DeFi options to borrow against your ETH and buy a car with cash?
I think the hard part for physical assets on the blockchain is how to manage repossession in the event of non payment.
The whole point would be not having to use your own assets as collateral
Grandpa taught me never to borrow another man's gold.
Well I mean when you buy a house or car you’re putting the property up as collateral anyway.
But most people get loans because they don’t have $30k sitting around to take out a $15k loan on
That is true. I imagine banks will figure out how to repossess physical assets on the blockchain soon.
Pretty brutal, not just in crypto but in tradfi as well.
As someone who’s been here for a few cycles, my only advice to newcomers is to just step away and stop looking at charts. Enjoy your life.
I like her takes.. no bullshit
this is a thread that shows how quickly misinformation in crypto gets amplified 😑
3AC is a PROP TRADING firm, not VC, not a hedge fund. they have NO outside money. therefore, more like Bill Hwang / Archegos. also * lending counterparties* responsible for being way too lax.
They might be using their own money (well except for managing other protocol treasuries - lol) but they certainly made long term VC investments.
Or to put it another way - calling someone a VC is a description of the kind of investment they make (and 3AC certainly made VC investments along with shorter term trading) and not of how they source the funds for it or their corporate structure.
>Mastercard is expanding its partnership with NFT marketplaces and #web3 providers to simplify the process of buying NFTs. Now anyone can buy an NFT with their Mastercard, without having to buy crypto first.
Didn’t anyone tell them crypto is dead?
Trying to pick a month when this drop reverses and begins to climb back again but even that isn’t easy. Merge is not an automatic elevator ride back up. End of October reasonable? Next year? Macro will decide this for us I imagine.
October 2024 is my guess
Fed pivot. Doesn’t even have to be cutting rates. Just when they decide to stop raising. I am hoping for their September meeting. It could be later but we are certainly not going back to 5% interest rates - even 3% is not certain
Inflation is likely to exceed 10%. 80% of all USD has been printed in the last 2 years. We’ve seen interest rates above 10% in living memory.
I’m not really sure why rates can’t go that high again. Is it because the national debt is too large this time around?
Essentially. If interest rates go back to those kinds of levels the entire US annual tax receipts will not be enough to pay the annual interest rate bill and service the debt load.
Yield curve control basically has to happen - what is happening in Japan now. There’s also precedent for the US doing it in the 1950s so it is not completely new.
It’s just a question of how much they will hike before declaring victory over inflation and stopping
My random prediction is inflation will be normalized to some “new normal”. They’ve always wanted 2%, and I think eventually they’ll just be like “what’s so bad about 5% inflation? Shut up plebs you’re fine” and we’ll probably just end up taking it because that’s what we do
Perhaps. However, if that’s the case then interest rates have to go above 5%. Otherwise money is literally free and you should borrow as much money as possible and spend it as quickly as possible. Negative real rates is part of how we got into this mess in the first place. Permanently maintaining negative real rates would also eventually lead to hyperinflation.
My best case scenario is August.
I think Julys inflation data for June will come in slightly hot, maybe 8.7% and that will suggest inflation is slowing down. Then in August, the CPI numbers for July will show flat. Market gets it's first real relief rally/bounce.
Again, my personal best case scenario thoughts.